Election Contest News: Europe at Crossroads, elections 2024

The 2024 EU elections: Introduction

Last weekend, nearly 200 million Europeans went to the polls to elect the 720 members of the European Parliament. Going into the EU elections, the big story was the predicted surge for the far-right. In the Election Contest News while the right did make gains, their success was mostly driven by electoral dynamics in just a couple of countries, notably France and Germany. The overall picture was complicated by a more general fragmentation of European politics. In this article, we will analyze what happened in last weekend’s election, why it was a good result for the right in some countries, and what might happen next.

Europe and the EU election context

Between June 6th and June 9th, 27 EU countries went to the polls to elect the 720 members of the European Parliament. This is 15 more MEPs than in 2019 but fewer than the 751 MEPs before Brexit. The EU apportions these 720 seats roughly relative to each country’s population size, although smaller member states generally get slightly more seats per capita. The seat allocation is different for smaller and bigger European countries.

Big countries like France, Germany, Spain, and Italy have around 800,000 people per MEP. Meanwhile smaller countries like Estonia, Cyprus, Luxembourg, and Malta have less than 200,000 people per MEP. Despite the adjustments, the big EU countries still have the most seats in the parliament. Germany has the most seats in the European Parliament at 96, followed by France at 81, Italy at 76 and Spain at 61. In Comparison, Cyprus, Luxembourg and Malta each have 6 seats. This means that what can look like Europe-wide trends are sometimes actually country-level trends.

Changes in European Parliamentary Composition

The elections reflect a massive shift in the halls of power in Brussels. Although the authorities have yet to announce the election results, we can already see some clear trends. It is important to understand that MEPS and their parties usually form larger European level groups which include more than one European party. MEPS are incentivized to organize intergroups for a variety of reasons. Not only is there a political advantage to working together with likeminded colleagues but groups also have some formal privileges within the parliament. A group must have at least 23 MEPS from at least seven different member states. Currently there are seven groups in the chamber from left to right. Below are the comparative election results:

Georgia Maloney is widely considered the leader of the ECR, while people widely consider Macron the leader of Renew Europe. The Renew has lost large number of seats mainly due to Macron’s declining popularity in France. It was in the context of these elections that Macron dissolved the French Parliament on the 10th of June 2024. The non-in scripts are members of parliament who are not in any grouping and their numbers have increased. Meanwhile the EPP still remains the largest party in the parliament with 20% of the overall shares. The S&D has more or less maintained the same number of MEPs but their share has decreased due to the increase in number of overall seats of the European Parliament.

Interestingly, every group to the right has gained seats while the left has lost seats as well. The New In scripts mostly include parties on the European right.

The Importance of European Parliament Elections

Voters in different countries treat these elections very differently. In some countries, European elections are treated distinctly. Meanwhile, in others Europeans vote for parties they think best reflect their preferred EU level policies. Interestingly some voters treat EU elections as essentially domestic affairs, using them to express satisfaction or dissatisfaction with their incumbent national government. In some countries there’s very little interest in Europe elections at all.

There has been fragmentation in between European political groupings mainly due to pressing issues like the war in Ukraine, European expansion and the immigration problem. There is also an increased likelihood that European far right party MEPs like Germany’s AFD, Hungary’s Fides and Poland’s Confederation could join forces to form a new bloc in the European Parliament. These 3 parties could either cooperate with ID or the ECR to form new right leaning power blocs in the parliament.

Election Contest News: The rise of European far Right

The right wing has underperformed in countries like Poland, Sweden and Belgium. Interestingly in Italy Malone’s Fratelli d’Italia did well with 29% of the vote but she mostly stole votes from other right-wing parties. However, the right wing has done especially well in France and Germany. In France, Le Pen’s party won 31.4% of the votes which is double that of Macron led coalition. Likewise in Germany, the Christian Democrats came first with the scandal stricken AFD trailing behind which secured the 2nd position. Scholz’s party, meanwhile, secured 3rd position and AFD defeated them in a shocking turnaround.

The Scandinavian countries meanwhile continued with their left leaning tendencies. The Green and other far left parties secured majorities in Denmark, Sweden and Finland and even the Netherlands. However, their gains were more than offset by their losses in France and Germany.

Conclusion

While the right performed well overall, the aggregate number disguises significant intra-European variation. The fragmentation of European politics promises to make governing and choosing a new commission president remarkably difficult. The coming months will reveal how these dynamics will shape the future of the European Union.